The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) predicts that Americans could suffer 40 million cases of skin cancer and 800,000 cancer deaths in the next 88 years because of depletion of atmospheric ozone. Chlorofluorocarbons, which are manufactured gases used as refrigerants and foams outside the U.S., break down the ozone in the upper atmosphere which acts as a shield to keep out harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun. (At ground level, ozone itself is a dangerous pollutant, harmful to vegetation and to human lungs; in the upper atmosphere it filters out the sun's most powerful and cancer-causing rays, protecting the earth and its inhabitants.)

The agency based its prediction on a continuation of current trends, so the estimates of skin cancer incidence and cancer deaths contain a wide margin of error. The agency said if the use of chlorofluorocarbons is reduced, the projected risks would be lowered by 90%, but with faster growth in their use, cancer risks would rise four-fold. The risk assessment still must be reviewed by additional EPA scientists and may be revised. The agency said if the assessment is supported by the review, immediate controls would have to be placed on the production of chlorofluorocarbons. The EPA assessment also said that increasing ultraviolet radiation on the earth would lead to more problems with the human immune system and eye cataracts, rising losses of crops and forest products and reduced aquatic resources. The Reagan Administration, which previously said more study was needed, planned to propose to a conference of industrialized nations in Geneva late in 1986 that a global "near-term freeze" be put on chlorofluorocarbons.
--Peter Montague, Ph.D.

Descriptor terms: epa; ozone; air pollution; cancer; skin cancer; chlorofluorocarbons; radiation; limits; standards; reagan; immune system; health; studies; global environmental problems;